Daily Analysis | Clear Treasury

Our daily analysis of EUR, GBP and USD.

DAILY ANALYSIS

USD

USD strengthened following positive reports of trade deal negotiations with multiple nations.
- China may lift their 125% tariffs on select American goods, including medical equipment, ethane, and aircraft leasing.
- Reuters noted early progress with South Korea and Japan.
- The US-UK trade agreement also added to the positive sentiment.
However, gains were capped by mixed US labour data. Jobless claims ticked up slightly to 222,000, but a 37,000 drop in continuing claims offered a partial offset.
The US housing market adds volatility to the currency, with MoM Sales for March dropping -5.9% vs. a -3% forecast.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is set to be published this afternoon, remaining steady at 50.8.

EUR/USD is down -0.3% this week as investor sentiment in the Euro is pacified following reports of easing trade tensions from the US. However, losses may be limited as China urged the US to lift all unilateral tariffs as a condition for meaningful dialogue.
ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann stated that future policy decisions remain entirely open, noting that tariffs have had a largely disinflationary effect so far, and economic damage may persist even if they are reduced.
- Dovish comments have firmed market expectations around a rate cut from the ECB in their June meeting.
With no high-impact data from the Eurozone today, EUR/USD fluctuates around mid-1.13 levels.

UK Retail sales beat expectations, as it has done consecutively with 2025 readings, surprisingly growing 0.4% vs. a – 0.4% forecast.
- GBP/USD found some support, hovering around 1.3300 levels, following the currency pair drifting lower in the early Asian session before the data release.
Chancellor Reeves said on Thursday she was confident of securing a trade agreement with the US, with hopes to shield the UK from US tariffs, including cars and steel. She will speak with US Treasury Secretary Bessent later today.
GBP may face headwinds with the uncertain economic outlook and rising bets of further BoE rate cuts.

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