Daily Analysis | Clear Treasury

Our daily analysis of EUR, GBP and USD.

DAILY ANALYSIS

GBP

GBPUSD rose for fourth straight day pushing above 1.37 yesterday with the pair now sitting close to three year highs.
The dominating factor for the move is sustained dollar weakness.
This is despite various dovish Bank of England comments earlier this week that would normally weaken the pound.
- BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday that they are starting to observe labour market softening. In addition, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that if evidence becomes stronger that inflation will undershoot the target, they can speed up rate cuts.
There is no macroeconomic data for release today, so all eyes will be across the pond to see how the dollar fortunes are faring.

As commented here earlier in the week, the euro has been quietly going about its own business and also benefiting from the weakening dollar too.
EURUSD opens this morning near four years highs close to the 1.17 mark.
- Should the move continue, 1.1815 comes into play which is the September 2018 high.

This week has not been kind to the dollar with the main catalyst for the move being President Trumps’ attack on the Federal Reserve.
Fears over the Fed’s independence escalated with his comments on Chair Jerome Powell, calling him “terrible” and indicating he has several candidates lined up to succeed Powell.
- Market fears come from the risk that the Fed’s independence would be in jeopardy then and decision making may lead to more aggressive rate cuts.
- For now, Trump appears to be openly supporting a weaker USD policy.
Looking ahead to later today, the economic calendar is light but the headline release will be US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May.

If you need a live exchange rate or quote, give us a call, email us, or request a call-back.

If you have not already registered with us the quote will be indicative.