Daily Analysis | Clear Treasury

Our daily analysis of EUR, GBP and USD.

DAILY ANALYSIS

USD

Q4 GDP in the US surpassed forecasts of 2.3%, arriving at 2.4%.
Jobless Claims also came in positively, marginally below forecasts of 225K at 224K.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index for February will be released at 12:30 GMT.
- Core PCE inflation is expected to rise 2.7% YoY, up from 2.6% in January, with the Fed revising its 2025 forecast to 2.8%, a 0.3% increase from their previous projection in December.
Investors await clarity on Trump’s tariffs and their potential inflationary impact, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.
- Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current policy stance in May.

Germany’s consumer confidence was slightly below estimates of -23, releasing at -24.5.
- Eurozone Consumer Confidence will be published at 10:00 GMT, forecasted to be at -14.5.
The EU has maintained their position to retaliate on Trump’s impending tariffs, putting further pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
- Investors anticipate an additional 60bps of rate cuts this year.
Overall, the Euro has struggled to make gains this week, falling 0.33% against the Dollar and 0.6% against GBP.

GBP strengthens against all majors except JPY, after upbeat GDP and Retail Sales data this morning.
- Q4 YoY GDP exceeded expectations, hitting 1.5% vs. 1.4% forecast, while QoQ met expectations at 0.1%.
- February Retail Sales surprised at 1.0% MoM, far surpassing the -0.3% forecast.
President Trump will impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2 alongside a 25% auto levy. In February, Trump expressed uncertainty about targeting the UK with tariffs. Starmer seeks a US deal before the tariffs hit; Reeves warns trade wars harm all in a Bloomberg interview.
This week, GBP/USD is up 0.27% and GBP/EUR has risen 0.51%.

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